[The biggest technological surprise to come by 2000 will be] some new digital storage device that enables thousands of gigabytes to be put into a cigarette-box-sized case.
Predictor: Bell, Gordon
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Upside, the editors interview five leaders of the technology sector to ask them for their predictions. They include Gordon Bell, who led the development of Digital Equipment Corp.’s VAX computer; Robert Lucky, vice president of research at Bellcore; Nathan Myhrvold, senior vice president of advanced technology at Microsoft Corp.; Jef Raskin, who “launched the Macintosh project at Apple Computer Inc.”; and John Warnock, CEO of Adobe Systems. Here is one of the questions, followed by the answers from this stellar group: Q: “By the end of the decade [by the year 2000], what technological advancement will be the biggest surprise?” A: “GORDON BELL: The Internet, because it has a simple standard for creating and viewing documents that is better than e-mail. This will enable selling things. Use of CDPD to build smart cars, trucks, etc. Evolution of POTS [plain old telephone service] that will enable video communication at low data rates.” A: “ROBERT LUCKY: If it is to be a surprise, then how can I know about it? Let’s say some new digital storage device that enables thousands of gigabytes to be put into a cigarette-box-sized case.” A: “NATHAN MYHRVOLD: That’s about the worst question I can imagine. If it’s a big surprise, how can I know it now? It will be the wealth of applications and services provided across broadband networks. No matter how people talk about how great they will be, they don’t understand how important they will become.” RASKIN: Volumetric storage, possibly using organic or even biologically inspired molecules. WARNOCK: Agents, filters, language-translation software and other technologies that help people deal with the vast amounts of information and communication capabilities that will be available.
Biography:Gordon Bell proposed a plan for a U.S. research and education network in a 1987 report to the Office of Science and Technology in response to a congressional request by Al Gore. He was a technology leader at Digital Equipment Corporation (where he led the development of the VAX computer) and with Microsoft. (Technology Developer/Administrator)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Upside
Title, headline, chapter name: Musings on the Millennium: Five Leading Technologists Who Have Made an Impact on High-Tech Give Their Predictions on What the Future Holds
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Volume 6, Issue 10, Page 24 ISSN: 10520341
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney