The prediction, in brief:

It is pretty unlikely that most governments will agree on the Clipper approach, since, as defined, it involves a secret algorithm developed by the U.S. government and therefore at least potentially capable of being easily breakable by the U.S. government. There are enough other viable alternatives out there that other governments can use other schemes.

Predictor: Hoffman, Lance

Prediction, in context:

Lance Hoffman, a computer security expert, visited in a real-time chat on HotWired March 28, 1995, while at the annual Computers, Freedom and Privacy conference. At the time, he was also in the midst of a publicity tour for his book “Building in Big Brother.” Hoffman says:”I think it is pretty unlikely that most governments will agree on the Clipper approach, since, as defined, it involves a secret algorithm developed by the U.S. government and therefore at least potentially capable of being easily breakable by the U.S. government. There are enough other viable alternatives out there that other governments can use other schemes. In fact there are over 800 cryptographic software and hardware products available worldwide – about half are DES-based, and about half are produced and/or distributed outside the U. S.”

Biography:

Lance Hoffman, a professor at George Washington University, was a security expert and the author of the 1994 National Science Foundation paper “Civilizing Cyberspace: Priority Policy Issues in a National Information Infrastructure” in addition to many other research pieces in the 1990s. He wrote the book “Rogue Programs: Viruses, Worms and Trojan Horses” (Van Nostrand Rheinhold, 1990). (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)

Date of prediction: March 28, 1995

Topic of prediction: Communication

Subtopic: Security/Encryption

Name of publication: Hot Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: None

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://hotwired.lycos.com/talk/club/special/transcripts/95-03-28.hoffman.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Johnson, Kathleen