The ideal pricing structure is likely to change over time. The argument for flat-fee charging, in the near term, to stimulate experimentation and use, extends beyond the research and education communities to business and the general public. Usage-sensitive pricing might be preferable in the long run, when network-based applications are as mature and familiar as voice telephony, photocopying, postal service, and other information-related transactions for which usage-sensitive charging already exists.
Predictor: National Research Council
Prediction, in context:In 1994, the NRENaissance Committee, appointed by the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board of the National Research Council, produced a special report titled “Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond.” Among the committee members were Internet pioneers Leonard Kleinrock, David Clark, David Farber, Lawrence Landweber and Robert Kahn. The committee’s goal was to “study issues raised by the shift to a larger, more truly national networking capability.” Among its statements about the blossoming of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) is this: ”In contemplating pricing options, there is an assumption that growth in the volume of users will result in lower average prices, given that there are economies of scale. Another assumption is that an increasing number of service providers creates competition that will also place a check on prices. Further, pricing schemes may motivate new protocol developments that can result in lower costs. All may take time to unfold, and neither assumption is inconsistent with some degree of continued government support for research and education users over the near term. As a result, the ideal pricing structure is likely to change over time. The argument for flat-fee charging, in the near term, to stimulate experimentation and use, extends beyond the research and education communities to business and the general public. Usage-sensitive pricing might be preferable in the long run, when network-based applications are as mature and familiar as voice telephony, photocopying, postal service, and other information-related transactions for which usage-sensitive charging already exists.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Realizing the Information Future: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: Paying the Price
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://stills.nap.edu/html/rtif/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney