Microsoft seems to be over-intellectualizing TV … “People have a money budget and a time budget,” [says] Thomas Wong … “And people are willing to pay to save time.” … They will use interactive TV to rent movies; shop for food, clothing, and household items; attend college and self-improvement classes; and get all kinds of information – all without having to leave their couch for time-consuming trips. That, he says, is what people in focus groups and surveys say they’ll do. I don’t think so … People watch television for an entirely different reason: to feel that they are part of something larger than their own lives … It’s a deep psychological fix … They also turn it on for company, as background noise. And who needs interactive background noise?
Predictor: Wong, Thomas
Prediction, in context:For a 1995 article for Wired magazine, reporter Evan Schwartz traveled across the U.S., checking out the interactive television consumer testing being conducted by entertainment/technology corporations. In the process, he interviewed Thomas Wong, Microsoft’s advanced consumer technology research manager. Schwartz writes:”Microsoft seems to be over-intellectualizing TV, in the hope that the software giant can break 50 years of viewing habits and change why people watch. ‘People have a money budget and a time budget,’ begins Thomas Wong, Microsoft’s advanced consumer technology research manager. ‘And people are willing to pay to save time,’ he adds. Thus, he says, they will use interactive TV to rent movies; shop for food, clothing, and household items; attend college and self-improvement classes; and get all kinds of information – all without having to leave their couch for time-consuming trips. That, he says, is what people in focus groups and surveys say they’ll do. I don’t think so. The reality, it seems after my first two expeditions into interactive TV land, is that people don’t care very much about saving time when they turn on the tube. The average American watches between four and five hours every day, according to Nielsen statistics. If they were so pressed for time, where did they get these extra hours in the first place? People watch television for an entirely different reason: to feel that they are part of something larger than their own lives. Why else would so many people know so much about characters in Cicily, Alaska, and the Melrose Place apartment complex without learning the names of their real neighbors? TV watchers seek out characters and stories with which to identify. It’s a deep psychological fix that can’t be explained in economic terms. They also turn it on for company, as background noise. And who needs interactive background noise? Hardcopy will do just fine. It’s not surprising that Microsoft doesn’t grasp this. So many executives from Bill Gates on down simply don’t watch much tube. Instead, everyone here seems obsessed with cramming as much as they can into their ultrasqueezed schedules.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: TV/Films/Video
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: People Are Supposed to Pay for This Stuff? Crisscrossing the Country, Our Intrepid Correspondent Visits Corporate Labs, Model Living Rooms, and Actual Sofas, to Check Out the Megahyped Interactive Television Prototypes and See Just How Real the 500-Channel, All-Digital, High-Fiber Future Really Is
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.07/cable_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney