What is a copyright any more? We have to rethink the whole concept of intellectual property, which was focused on the printed word. Perhaps within a few decades, the distinction between electronic transmissions and the printed word will have disappeared. The only solution may be a universal licensing system where you basically become a subscriber, and where it is taken for granted that everything that is published is reproduced. In other words, if you don’t want everybody to know, don’t talk about it. I think we are getting there very fast.
Predictor: Drucker, Peter
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Peter Schwartz interviews Peter Drucker, the man who coined the term “knowledge worker” and made his reputation as an inventor of the science of modern corporate management. Schwartz quotes Drucker: ”Knowledge has become the central, key resource that knows no geography. It underlies the most significant and unprecedented social phenomenon of this century. No class in history has ever risen as fast as the blue- collar worker and no class has ever fallen as fast. All within less than a century … A friend of mine is a publisher of scientific monographs. He brought out a new book on brain surgery, and printed 2,126 copies. I said, ‘Why that number?’ He said, ‘We always keep a hundred for our archives. There are 2,026 brain surgeons and hospitals that perform brain surgery. And we send it to them COD.’ That was before the copying machine. He just sold that business and is starting an electronic service. He is not going to print any more. He said, ‘If I print it, it only gets copied. But if I simply send it via electronic mail to the people who are members of that society, and bill them, I get paid, and what they then do with it is their business. But no way I can control it.’ So, what is a copyright any more? We have to rethink the whole concept of intellectual property, which was focused on the printed word. Perhaps within a few decades, the distinction between electronic transmissions and the printed word will have disappeared. The only solution may be a universal licensing system where you basically become a subscriber, and where it is taken for granted that everything that is published is reproduced. In other words, if you don’t want everybody to know, don’t talk about it. I think we are getting there very fast.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Copyright/Intellectual Property/Plagiarism
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Post-Capitalist: Peter Drucker, the Father of Modern Management, Discusses How Knowledge, Not Capital, is the New Basis of Wealth
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.03/drucker_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney