Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

As a society we failed to realize the democratizing potential of television, and risk the same failure with CMC, because we have focused literacy education too narrowly on the encoding and decoding of written text. Just as scandalous as the number of print illiterates in our society is the number of presumably “literate” Americans who have no critical understanding of electronic media. But it would be a mistake to assume that CMC in the form of a national digital network will necessarily replicate the experience of television.

Predictor: Langham, Don

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for Computer-Mediated Communication magazine, Don Langham, a Ph.D. student at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, writes: ”Pro-active government involvement is needed to ensure from the outset that the emerging National Information Infrastructure (NII) is built with the broad public interest in mind. The advocacy group Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility (CPSR) has articulated a set of principles and ideals that the federal government should hold foremost in mind when regulating the development of the NII. These principles include (among others): equality of access, the freedom of communication, the preservation of public spaces, guarantees of privacy. But even if the government were able to move quickly enough with adequate foresight (which is unlikely), policies alone will not make the emerging electronic communication networks known as the NII a democratizing forum. What we need, as [R.A.] Lanham argues, is ‘digital literacy’ education that would teach students to utilize digital media as a tool for critical thinking about the human condition. The goal of this education would be to develop in students the rhetorical and critical skills needed to be fully active members of human society as it exists on interactive digital computer networks. As a society we failed to realize the democratizing potential of television, and risk the same failure with CMC, because we have focused literacy education too narrowly on the encoding and decoding of written text. Just as scandalous as the number of print illiterates in our society is the number of presumably ‘literate’ Americans who have no critical understanding of electronic media. But it would be a mistake to assume that CMC in the form of a national digital network will necessarily replicate the experience of television. The federal government, following recommendations like those offered by the CPSR, can see to it that equal access to the NII is guaranteed. But that guarantee is hollow if the masses have no critical understanding of how to use these media to create a vital, democratic public sphere of influence and action.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics

Subtopic: Democracy

Name of publication: Computer-Mediated Communication

Title, headline, chapter name: Preserving Democracy in Cyberspace: The Need for a new Literacy

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.december.com/cmc/mag/1994/aug/literacy.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Vellucci, Amanda