No one argues that use of all transportation networks should be free. The interstate highway system might be viewed as the one-size-fits-all universal access option (for those who can afford cars), with the option to pay for using a mode with a different combination of service characteristics. Likewise, a government might want to provide universal, free access to a baseline set of Internet transport services, and allow charges for usage of other services above a threshold. Appropriate free services might include plain-text e-mail (with lower priority when the network is congested) but not guaranteed, zero-delay multimedia broadcast. Universal access and a base endowment of usage for all citizens could be provided through vouchers or other redistribution schemes.
Predictor: MacKie-Mason, Jeffrey K.
Prediction, in context:The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “Pricing the Internet” by Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason and Hal R. Varian. MacKie is an associate professor of economics and Varian is a professor of economics at the University of Michigan. They write: ”Highways are often suggested as an analogy for the future of Internet. Many people argue that publicly provided interstate highways without tools work well and should be the model. But this analogy is flawed. First, not all democratic governments agree that toll-free roads are the best allocation of social resources; most European countries have extensive toll systems, and even some U.S. interstates have tolls. More important, an interstate offers a single, undifferentiated service. Users who need different services pay for access to rail lines, canals, or airports. No one argues that use of all transportation networks should be free. The interstate highway system might be viewed as the one-size-fits-all universal access option (for those who can afford cars), with the option to pay for using a mode with a different combination of service characteristics. Likewise, a government might want to provide universal, free access to a baseline set of Internet transport services, and allow charges for usage of other services above a threshold. Appropriate free services might include plain-text e-mail (with lower priority when the network is congested) but not guaranteed, zero-delay multimedia broadcast. Universal access and a base endowment of usage for all citizens could be provided through vouchers or other redistribution schemes.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Pricing the Internet
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 285, 286
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne