Futurologists such as Alvin Toffler tend to overemphasize the thread of technological determinism in history and then project it into the future. The technologies of transmission – writing systems, printing presses, and computers – do not necessarily drive change in a predictably specific direction … Each technical step forward means a compensating step backward in our mind-set … By transforming three-quarters of the world into a cultural proletariat, you will make people of this class into more determined rebels in the 21st century. Far more determined, in fact, than the economic proletariat has been in the 20th century … machines will never be able to give the thinking process a model of thought itself, since machines are not mortal. What gives humans access to the symbolic domain of value and meaning is the fact that we die.
Predictor: Debray, Regis
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Andrew Joscelyne interviews French radical theoretician Regis Debray, who has created a discipline he calls “mediology” in his investigation of how abstract ideas can become world-changing ideologies. Joscelyne quotes Debray saying: ”Mediology tries to view history by hybridizing technology and culture. It focuses on the intersections between technology and intellectual life … McLuhan blurred over some fairly complex issues in his famous ‘the medium is the message’ sound bite. The term ‘medium’ can be unpacked into a channel (i.e., a technology such as film), or a code (such as music or a natural language), or a message (the semantic content of an act of communication such as a promise). By reducing medium to a channel-eye view, McLuhan overemphasizes the technology behind cultural change at the expense of the usage that the messages and codes make of that technology. Semioticians do the opposite – they glorify the code at the expense of what it is really used for in a specific milieu … Giuseppe Verdi once said, ‘Looking back at the past is a real sign of progress.’ In my opinion, futurologists such as Alvin Toffler tend to overemphasize the thread of technological determinism in history and then project it into the future. The technologies of transmission – writing systems, printing presses, and computers – do not necessarily drive change in a predictably specific direction … Each technical step forward means a compensating step backward in our mind-sets. Islamic fundamentalists don’t come from the traditional universities deeply rooted in a literary educational system; they graduate from engineering schools and technical colleges. Last century, some futurologists foresaw the end of national wars under the influence of spreading railroad lines and electrical telegraphy; others believed that industrialization would wipe out religious superstition. In fact, an imbalance in technologies tends to provoke a corresponding refocusing on ethnic values … I think we should negotiate a contract for mediodiversity in a mediosphere that is continually threatened with increasing uniformity of content because of the spread of global networks. The contrast between commercial entertainment product and cultural artwork reveals two competing world views. Commercial entertainment products meet consumer needs, whereas cultural objects create their own audiences, often against the grain of current taste. The Nielsen ratings not only spell the demise of filmmakers such as Roberto Rossellini or John Cassavetes, they also write the coda to an essentially Enlightenment vision that puts the quality of artistic mind over the quantity of box-office matter. Simply put, movie studios like Columbia Pictures and Warner Brothers might be good for the U.S., but there is no reason why they will be good for humanity as a whole. As Thomas Edison said a century ago, “whoever controls the film industry will control the most powerful influence over people.” And today that means everyone on the planet. Images govern our dreams, and our dreams drive our actions. Seeing Easy Rider or Mourir Madrid (To Die in Madrid) or Citizen Kane can change a kid’s life. But 320 different types of cheese or wine won’t, however much the studio bosses suggest that America makes movies and France sticks to gastronomy. Political dominance always means that you kill off other ways of seeing things. By transforming three-quarters of the world into a cultural proletariat, you will make people of this class into more determined rebels in the 21st century. Far more determined, in fact, than the economic proletariat has been in the 20th century … machines will never be able to give the thinking process a model of thought itself, since machines are not mortal. What gives humans access to the symbolic domain of value and meaning is the fact that we die.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Revolution in the Revolution: In the ’60s Regis Debray Fought Beside Che Guevara in Bolivia. Today, His Obsession Isn’t Ideology – it’s Mediology
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.01/debray_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney