The prediction, in brief:

The prevailing mode may be shifting towards competition, both commercial and academic. To develop protocols in a commercially competitive world, you need elaborate committee structures and rules. The action then shifts to the large companies, away from small companies and universities. In an academically competitive world, you don’t develop any (useful) protocols; you get six different protocols for the same objective, each with its research paper (which is the “real” output). This results in efficient production of research papers, but it may not result in the kind of intellectual consensus necessary to create good and useful communication protocols.

Predictor: Braden, Robert

Prediction, in context:

This August 1991 Request For Comment – No. 1251 – from the Network Working Group, includes biographies of Internet leaders. The RFC includes information from Robert Braden, IAB Executive Director. Braden joined the networking research group at ISI in 1986. He was supported by the National Science Foundation for research concerning NSFnet, and by DARPA for protocol research. He writes:”With growth and success (plus subtle policy shifts in Washington), the prevailing mode may be shifting towards competition, both commercial and academic. To develop protocols in a commercially competitive world, you need elaborate committee structures and rules. The action then shifts to the large companies, away from small companies and universities. In an academically competitive world, you don’t develop any (useful) protocols; you get six different protocols for the same objective, each with its research paper (which is the ÔrealÕ output). This results in efficient production of research papers, but it may not result in the kind of intellectual consensus necessary to create good and useful communication protocols.Ó

Date of prediction: January 1, 1991

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Protocols

Name of publication: Requests For Comments

Title, headline, chapter name: RFC1251

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc1251.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne