The prediction, in brief:

For some years now we have been painfully aware of the scaling problems of the Internet, and since 1982 have lived through a series of mini-disasters as various limits have been exceeded. We have been saying that “getting big” is probably a more urgent (and perhaps more difficult) research problem than “getting fast,” but it seems difficult to persuade people of the importance of launching the kind of research program we think is necessary to learn how to deal with Internet growth. It is very hard to figure out when the exponential growth is likely to stop, or when, if ever, the fundamental architectural model of the Internet will be so out of kilter with reality that it will cease be useful. Ask me again in 10 years.

Predictor: Braden, Robert

Prediction, in context:

This August 1991 Request For Comment – No. 1251 from the Network Working Group – includes biographies of Internet leaders. The RFC includes information from Robert Braden, IAB Executive Director. Braden joined the networking research group at ISI in 1986. He was supported by the National Science Foundation for research concerning NSFnet, and by DARPA for protocol research. He writes:”Being a member of the IAB is sometimes very frustrating. For some years now we have been painfully aware of the scaling problems of the Internet, and since 1982 have lived through a series of mini-disasters as various limits have been exceeded. We have been saying that ‘getting big’ is probably a more urgent (and perhaps more difficult) research problem than ‘getting fast,’ but it seems difficult to persuade people of the importance of launching the kind of research program we think is necessary to learn how to deal with Internet growth. It is very hard to figure out when the exponential growth is likely to stop, or when, if ever, the fundamental architectural model of the Internet will be so out of kilter with reality that it will cease be useful. Ask me again in 10 years.Ó

Date of prediction: January 1, 1991

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: General

Name of publication: Requests For Comments

Title, headline, chapter name: RFC1251

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
www.faqs.org/rfcs/rfc1251.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne