The shift of information from a paper archive to an electronic one does mean that people won’t read as much stuff off of paper. But they certainly won’t store or send most information that way. There will still be local printing, still copies of reports that you’ll take into your study, still books you’ll read in bed at night. There may be a growing appreciation for fine books. After 500 years of tradition and success, paper is certainly not going to just go away, but the all-consuming, tree-consumptive aspect of paper used as a transportation medium for information is on the verge of going away because of the ongoing emergence of computers that integrate sound, video, and print.
Predictor: Warnock, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, David Henry Goodstein interviews John Warnock, the founder of Adobe Systems. Goodstein quotes Warnock:”The shift of information from a paper archive to an electronic one does mean that people won’t read as much stuff off of paper. But they certainly won’t store or send most information that way. There will still be local printing, still copies of reports that you’ll take into your study, still books you’ll read in bed at night. There may be a growing appreciation for fine books. After 500 years of tradition and success, paper is certainly not going to just go away, but the all-consuming, tree-consumptive aspect of paper used as a transportation medium for information is on the verge of going away because of the ongoing emergence of computers that integrate sound, video, and print.”
Biography:John Warnock was the founder of Adobe, a major software maker of the 1990s. He introduced the concept of PDF in 1991. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Scriptwriter: John Warnock, the Inventor of PostScript and the Founder of Adobe Systems, Plots the Future of Media
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.07/postscript_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney