One of the major differences between the youth and aged cultures now will soon become (has already become?) a factor in itself: the media literate vs. the print literate … The post-literate (or, as I hope they will become, media-literate) cultures emerging around us in the present and looming vastly larger in the future, are as different from cultures based on print as print cultures are from those of oral societies. Since we live within the envelope of the dying (or marginalizing) print cultures and the rise of audio-visual ones, those of us who have been conditioned all our lives to “think like a book” usually ignore, disparage, or simply cannot understand those who may learn to think and to express their thoughts through moving holographic images. Being so (literally) brainwashed by print, we can no more truly understand the new cultures that are overwhelming us.
Predictor: Dator, Jim
Prediction, in context:In a 1990 research presentation he made at the 3rd symposium on Cross-Cultural Consumer and Business Studies, futurist Jim Dator makes the following statement: ”One of the major differences between the youth and aged cultures now will soon become (has already become?) a factor in itself: the media literate vs. the print literate. Oral tribes of great antiquity everywhere throughout the world were no match for agrarian ‘civilizations’ based on writing. Subsequently, industrial societies destroyed agrarian societies by the power of the mechanically-written word. All of the institutions of ‘developed’ societies are (or were) based on printing … And then came electricity, telegraph, telephone, radio, cinema, mechanical switching, broadcast television, computers, electronic switching, audiotape recorders, videotape recorders, electronic networks, cable television, lasers, communication satellites, fiber optics, personal computers, modems, laser discs, holography (much more’s on the way). And print and all its institutions and ways of thinking lost its dominance and will soon lose its place – or rather it will find its place among the infinitely greater ‘communication’ capabilities of the electronic/post-electronic/information era. The post-literate (or, as I hope they will become, media-literate) cultures emerging around us in the present and looming vastly larger in the future, are as different from cultures based on print as print cultures are from those of oral societies. Since we live within the envelope of the dying (or marginalizing) print cultures and the rise of audio-visual ones, those of us who have been conditioned all our lives to ‘think like a book’ usually ignore, disparage, or simply cannot understand those who may learn to think and to express their thoughts through moving holographic images. Being so (literally) brainwashed by print, we can no more truly understand the new cultures that are overwhelming us than we can truly understand ‘the savage mind’ of pre-literate societies we distorted or destroyed.”
Biography:Jim Dator was a futurist who is credited with founding the first Future Studies program in 1971. He has been director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies at the University of Hawaii. (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: December 17, 1990
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Digital Divide
Title, headline, chapter name: Selling Chips to Robots: Cross-Cultural Perspectives in Virtual Realities
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/dator/artificiality/chips2robots.pdf
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Chick, Jason