[We are] rapidly developing a chain of info-intensive countries whose economics depend not on the hoe or the assembly-line but on brainpower … All the social institutions designed for the second wave – for a mass production, mass media, mass society – are in crisis. The health system, the family system, the education system, the transportation system, various ecological systems – along with our value and epistemological systems. All of them … The emerging third-wave civilization is going to collide head-on with the old first and second civilizations … The master conflict of the 21st century will not be between cultures but between the three supercivilizations – between agrarianism and industrialism and post-industrialism.
Predictor: Toffler, Alvin
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, futurist Peter Schwartz, a co-founder of the Global Business Network, discusses the high-tech future that will develop out of a knowledge-based world with futurist Alvin Toffler, the co-author (with his wife Heidi Toffler) of “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” Schwartz quotes Toffler saying: ”Information, including misinformation, will change the world militarily and economically. If we look at global power, in the broadest sense, the most basic division in the world was not between East and West, but between industrial and nonindustrial powers. Between first wave or agrarian countries, and second wave or industrial countries. That two-way split in world power has dominated the planet for 300 years. What is happening now is a process of what we call trisection. The world system is splitting into three parts – three different layers or tiers – or more accurately three different civilizations. Of course, you’ll continue to have agrarian countries and you’ll continue to have the mass-manufacturing cheap-labor suppliers, at least for a transitional period. But we are … rapidly developing a chain of info-intensive countries whose economics depend not on the hoe or the assembly-line but on brainpower. The people reading Wired are children of this third wave of change. It is an entirely new civilization that is still in its infancy … The entire culture is in upheaval. All the social institutions designed for the second wave – for a mass production, mass media, mass society – are in crisis. The health system, the family system, the education system, the transportation system, various ecological systems – along with our value and epistemological systems. All of them … The emerging third-wave civilization is going to collide head-on with the old first and second civilizations. One of the things we ought to learn from history is that when waves of change collide they create countercurrents. When the first and the second wave collided we had civil wars, upheavals, political revolutions, forced migrations. The master conflict of the 21st century will not be between cultures but between the three supercivilizations – between agrarianism and industrialism and post-industrialism.”
Biography:Alvin Toffler was a futurist and best-selling author in the 1990s. He teamed up with his wife, Heidi, to write the bestsellers “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Shock Wave (Anti) Warrior
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.05/toffler_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney