If you change the way you make wealth, you inevitably change the way you make war. And if you change the way you make war, you ought to be thinking about changing the way you make peace … If we are now in the process of transforming the way we create wealth, from the industrial to the informational, or call it whatever you wish, there is a parallel change taking place with warfare … In military terms there will be attempts to coordinate all the knowledge-intensive activities of the military from education and training to high-precision weaponry to espionage to everything that involves the mind – propaganda – into coherent strategies.
Predictor: Toffler, Alvin
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, futurist Peter Schwartz, a co-founder of the Global Business Network, discusses the high-tech future that will develop out of a knowledge-based world with futurist Alvin Toffler, the co-author (with his wife Heidi Toffler) of “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” Schwartz quotes Toffler saying: ”The way you make war is the way you make wealth. If you change the way you make wealth, you inevitably change the way you make war. And if you change the way you make war, you ought to be thinking about changing the way you make peace. War was initiated by the agrarian revolution, or in our terminology ‘the first wave of change.’ With the coming of the industrial revolution, particularly the French Revolution and Napoleon, you begin to get mass production, you begin to get mass conscription. You begin to get machine guns for the machine society. With mass production, you get mass destruction – industrialized warfare. And if we are now in the process of transforming the way we create wealth, from the industrial to the informational, or call it whatever you wish, there is a parallel change taking place with warfare, of which the Gulf War gives only the palest, palest little hint. The transition actually started back in the late-1970s, early-1980s, to a new form of warfare based on information superiority. It mirrors the way the economy has become information-dependent. An important part of this will be what we call ‘knowledge strategies’ – social knowledge strategies, national knowledge strategies, and so on. In military terms there will be attempts to coordinate all the knowledge-intensive activities of the military from education and training to high-precision weaponry to espionage to everything that involves the mind – propaganda – into coherent strategies.”
Biography:Alvin Toffler was a futurist and best-selling author in the 1990s. He teamed up with his wife, Heidi, to write the bestsellers “Future Shock,” “The Third Wave” and “War and Anti-War.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Global Relationships/Politics
Subtopic: Peacekeeping/Warfare
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Shock Wave (Anti) Warrior
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.05/toffler_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney