If we ever succeed in making machines as smart as humans, then it’s only a small leap to imagine that we would soon thereafter make – or cause to be made – machines that are even smarter than any human. And that’s it. That’s the end of the human era – the closest analogy would be the rise of the human race within the animal kingdom. The reason for calling this a “singularity” is that things are completely unknowable beyond that point.
Predictor: Vinge, Vernor
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, editor Kevin Kelly has an in-depth conversation with Vernor Vinge, a cult figure among Internet veterans and sci-fi fans thanks to his book “True Names,” a 1981 book that featured a great deal of foresight about the issues now dominating Net culture, including: Can there be privacy? Why not have multiple identities? Should anonymity be tolerated? and Who should know your true name? Kelly quotes Vinge stating: ”All sorts of apocalyptic visions are floating around, but mine is very narrow. It just says that if we ever succeed in making machines as smart as humans, then it’s only a small leap to imagine that we would soon thereafter make – or cause to be made – machines that are even smarter than any human. And that’s it. That’s the end of the human era – the closest analogy would be the rise of the human race within the animal kingdom. The reason for calling this a ‘singularity’ is that things are completely unknowable beyond that point.”
Biography:Vernor Vinge was known for his prophetic 1983 science fiction book “True Names,” in which he presciently addressed many of the future burning issues of identity and privacy on the Internet. Because of this background, he was interviewed about the Internet in the early 1990s. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Human-Machine Interaction
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Singular Visionary: Sci-fi Master/Math Nerd Vernor Vinge Believes that Machines are About to Rule the Human Race as Humans Have Ruled the Animal Kingdom
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.06/vinge_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney