Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

Encrypted networks worry the hell out of me … The effects are scary and unpredictable and could be very destabilizing. But even the Four Horsemen of Kidporn, Dope Dealers, Mafia, and Terrorists don’t worry me as much as totalitarian governments … Our battle this century against totalitarianism has left terrible scars all over our body politic, and the threat these people pose to us is entirely and utterly predictable. You can say that the devil we know is better than the devil we don’t, but the devils we knew were ready to commit genocide, litter the earth with dead, and blow up the world. How much worse can that get? Let’s not build chips and wiring for our police and spies when only their police and spies can reap the full benefit of them.

Predictor: Sterling, Bruce

Prediction, in context:

A 1994 article in Wired magazine contains the body of Bruce Sterling’s concluding speech at the Computers, Freedom and Privacy Conference IV in Chicago, March 26, 1994. Sterling says: ”People, encryption is not our friend. Encryption is a mathematical technique, and it has about as much concern for our human well-being as does the fact that 17 times 17 equals 289. It does, but that doesn’t make us sleep any safer in our beds. Encrypted networks worry the hell out of me, and they have since the mid-1980s. The effects are scary and unpredictable and could be very destabilizing. But even the Four Horsemen of Kidporn, Dope Dealers, Mafia, and Terrorists don’t worry me as much as totalitarian governments. It’s been a long century, and we’ve had enough of them. Our battle this century against totalitarianism has left terrible scars all over our body politic, and the threat these people pose to us is entirely and utterly predictable. You can say that the devil we know is better than the devil we don’t, but the devils we knew were ready to commit genocide, litter the earth with dead, and blow up the world. How much worse can that get? Let’s not build chips and wiring for our police and spies when only their police and spies can reap the full benefit of them.”

Biography:

Bruce Sterling, a writer, consultant and science fiction enthusiast, wrote or co-wrote “Schismatrix,” “The Hacker Crackdown” and “The Difference Engine” and edited “Mirrorshades: The Cyberpunk Anthology.” In the 1990s, he wrote tech articles for Fortune, Harper’s, Details, Whole Earth Review and Wired, where he was a contributing writer from its founding. He published the nonfiction book “Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years” in 2002. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: March 26, 1994

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Pornography

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: So, People, We Have a Fight on Our Hands

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.07/sterling.cfp_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney