The number and variety of relationships in which we are engaged, potential frequency of contact, expressed intensity of relationship, and endurance through time all are steadily increasing. As this increase becomes extreme we reach a state of social saturation … Formerly, increases in time and distance between persons typically meant loss. [Today] one may sustain an intimacy over thousands of miles … In effect, as we move through life, the cast of relevant characters is ever expanding. For some this means an ever-increasing sense of stress … At the same time that the past is preserved, continuously poised to insert itself into the present, there is an acceleration of the future. The pace of relationships is hurried, and processes of unfolding that once required months or years may be accomplished in days or weeks … As the future opens, the number of friendships expands as never before.
Predictor: Gergen, Kenneth J.
Prediction, in context:The 1997 book “Computers, Ethics, and Society,” edited by M. David Ermann, Mary B. Williams and Michele S. Shauf, carries an excerpt of “The Saturated Self,” a 1991 book by Kenneth J. Gergen. Gergen argues that technology has transformed social relationships. He writes: ”Through the technologies of the century, the number and variety of relationships in which we are engaged, potential frequency of contact, expressed intensity of relationship, and endurance through time all are steadily increasing. As this increase becomes extreme we reach a state of social saturation … It is not only the immediate community that occupies our thoughts and feelings, but a constantly changing cast of characters spread across the globe. Two aspects of this expansion are particularly noteworthy. First there is what may be termed the perseverance of the past. Formerly, increases in time and distance between persons typically meant loss. When someone moved away, the relationship would languish … Today, time and distance are no longer such serious threats to a relationship. One may sustain an intimacy over thousands of miles … In effect, as we move through life, the cast of relevant characters is ever expanding. For some this means an ever-increasing sense of stress … At the same time that the past is preserved, continuously poised to insert itself into the present, there is an acceleration of the future. The pace of relationships is hurried, and processes of unfolding that once required months or years may be accomplished in days or weeks … As the future opens, the number of friendships expands as never before.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1991
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Relationships
Name of publication: Computers, Ethics, and Society (book)
Title, headline, chapter name: Social Relations and Personal Identity in a Computerized Society
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Pages 138, 139
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne