According to International Data Corp., a market research firm in Framingham, Mass., about 8.3 million people will be using the Web by year-end. Of that group, IDC estimates that an amazing 75 percent are using Netscape’s software. And as more of the 57 million users of the broader Internet move onto the Web, Netscape’s market will keep growing.
Predictor: Sullivan-Trainor, Michael
Prediction, in context:In a July 1995 article for The Washington Post, Elizabeth Corcoran takes a look at the looming impact of Netscape, quoting market researcher Michael Sullivan-Trainor. Corcoran writes: ”The hottest company in the overheated world of technology right now may be a little outfit in Mountain View, Calif., called Netscape Communications Corp. Founded just 16 months ago, Netscape has yet to earn a profit. Yet industry leader Microsoft Corp said last week it already views Netscape as a future rival, along with giants such as International Business Machines Corp. and Apple Computer Inc. Netscape’s cult status stems in part from the reputation of its 24-year-old vice president of technology, Marc Andreessen … [He] gets mobbed like a rock star when he visits computer industry conferences. And he is already being classed with some of the visionary pioneers of the industry … Netscape’s potential market is large and growing. According to International Data Corp., a market research firm in Framingham, Mass., about 8.3 million people will be using the Web by year-end. Of that group, IDC estimates that an amazing 75 percent are using Netscape’s software. And as more of the 57 million users of the broader Internet move onto the Web, Netscape’s market will keep growing. Netscape ‘clearly has a good claim on … being the Microsoft of the Internet, or at least of the World Wide Web,’ said Michael Sullivan-Trainor, a research director at IDC. Netscape is riding this wave of enthusiasm to Wall Street, where it plans next month to make an initial public offering of 3.5 million shares, amounting to 10 percent of the company, at an expected price of $12 to $14 a share.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Number of Users
Name of publication: Washington Post
Title, headline, chapter name: Software’s Surf King; Marc Andreessen, 24, Is Making Waves on the Internet’s World Wide Web
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=afed8508b214300833b13fa32d328286&_docnum=3&wchp=dGLbVzb-lSlAl&_md5=fede00ff9422b4e30dc24e1b9f86d9d1
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Pagano, Shawna