By 2040, we can have robots that are as smart as we are. Eventually, these machines will begin their own process of evolution and render us extinct in our present form … It’s the best thing we could hope for, the ultimate form of human transcendence.
Predictor: Moravec, Hans
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Charles Platt, author of “The Silicon Man,” interviews Hans Moravec, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute and the author of “Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence.” Platt writes: ”At the age of 10, [Hans Moravec] constructed a toy robot from miscellaneous scrap metal. In high school, when another student maintained that no machine could ever be truly human, Moravec suggested replacing human neurons, one at a time, using man-made components that would have the equivalent function. At what point, he asked, would humanness disappear? If a wholly artificial entity is still able to act human in every way, how could we prove that it isn’t human? Today, Moravec is a professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s Robotics Institute, the largest robot research lab in the country and one he helped establish in 1980 … By 2040, he believes, we can have robots that are as smart as we are. Eventually, these machines will begin their own process of evolution and render us extinct in our present form. Yet, according to Moravec, this is not something we should fear: it’s the best thing we could hope for, the ultimate form of human transcendence. And in his own laboratory, he’s laying the groundwork that may help this evolutionary leap happen ahead of schedule. Not everyone thinks this is such a wonderful idea. Joseph Weizenbaum, professor emeritus of computer science at MIT, complains that Moravec’s book ‘Mind Children: The Future of Robot and Human Intelligence’ is as dangerous as ‘Mein Kampf.’ Respected mathematician Roger Penrose has written a long essay for The New York Review of Books in which he twice uses the word ‘horrific’ to describe some of Moravec’s concepts. Book reviewer Poovan Murugesan denounces Moravec as ‘a loose cannon of fast ideas’ who suffers from ‘irresponsible optimism.'”
Biography:Hans Moravec was a professor at Carnegie Mellon university’s Robotics Institute who caused a lot of consternation with the book “Mind Children: The Future of the Robot and Human Intelligence,” in which he predicted the rise of machines and extinction of humans. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Human-Machine Interaction
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Superhumanism: According to Hans Moravec, by 2040 Robots Will Become as Smart as We Are. And Then They’ll Displace Us as the Dominant Form of Life on Earth. But He Isn’t Worried – the Robots Will Love Us
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.10/moravec_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney