From the ARPAnet to Prodigy, people have surprised network planners with their eagerness to exchange mail. “Mail” will not just mean voice and text, but also pictures and video – no doubt with many new variations. We know from past demand that the network will be used for electronic assembly – virtual town halls, village greens, and coffee houses, again taking place not just through shared text (as in today’s computer networks), but with multi-media transmissions, including images, voice, and video. Unlike the telephone, this network will also be a publications medium, distributing electronic newsletters, video clips and interpreted reports. It will also be an information marketplace which will include electronic invoicing, billing, listing, brokering, advertising, comparison-shopping, and matchmaking of various kinds.
Predictor: Kapor, Mitchell
Prediction, in context:In his May 1, 1991 testimony before a Federal Communications Commission hearing on future networks, Mitchell Kapor states: ”While we can’t predict which applications will open up huge new markets, we can make a few educated guesses, based on today’s prototypes. These include the Internet, a decentralized, anarchic web of computers and electronic mailboxes, linking major universities and industrial research labs around the world. Other ‘Petri dishes’ of social ferment include smaller, regional computer conferencing systems like the Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link (the WELL) and a turbulent mass of tens of thousands non-commercial computer bulletin board systems linked in the Fidonet network. Messaging will be popular: time and time again, from the ARPAnet to Prodigy, people have surprised network planners with their eagerness to exchange mail. ‘Mail’ will not just mean voice and text, but also pictures and video – no doubt with many new variations. We know from past demand that the network will be used for electronic assembly – virtual town halls, village greens, and coffee houses, again taking place not just through shared text (as in today’s computer networks), but with multi-media transmissions, including images, voice, and video. Unlike the telephone, this network will also be a publications medium, distributing electronic newsletters, video clips and interpreted reports. It will also be an information marketplace which will include electronic invoicing, billing, listing, brokering, advertising, comparison-shopping, and matchmaking of various kinds.”
Biography:Mitchell Kapor founded the Lotus Development Corporation and also founded the Electronic Frontier Foundation with WELL (Whole Earth ‘Lectronic Link) members John Perry Barlow and John Gilmore in 1990 in direct response to a threat to free speech. He was an outspoken supporter of open access to the Internet, and was asked to speak in many venues about the issue, including Congressional hearings. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: May 1, 1991
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: E-mail
Name of publication: FCC Hearing Testimony - May 1, 1991
Title, headline, chapter name: Testimony Summary for ‘Networks of the Future’
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Publications/Mitch_Kapor/fcc_nii_kapor_eff_050191.testimony
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney