The microprocessor will become a vestigial link to the legacy systems such as word processing and spreadsheets that once defined the machine. All of this means that while the last two decades have been the epoch of the computer industry, the next two decades will belong to the suppliers of digital networks.
Predictor: Gilder, George
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article he wrote for Forbes ASAP titled “The Bandwidth Tidal Wave,” George Gilder looks at the technology involved in the networking revolution. The article is a portion of his 1996 book “Telecosm.” Gilder writes: ”With network technology advancing 10 times as fast as central processors, the network and its nodes will become increasingly central while CPUs become increasingly peripheral. Faced with a CPU bottleneck, multimedia systems will simply bypass the CPU on broadband pipes. Circumventing Amdahl’s Law, system designers will adapt their architectures to exploit the high bandwidth components, such as mediaprocessors, ATM switches and fiber links. In time the microprocessor will become a vestigial link to the legacy systems such as word processing and spreadsheets that once defined the machine. All of this means that while the last two decades have been the epoch of the computer industry, the next two decades will belong to the suppliers of digital networks.”
Biography:George Gilder was a pioneer the formulation of the theory of supply-side economics. In his major book “Microcosm” (1989), he explored the quantum roots of the new electronic technologies. His book “Life After Television,” published by W.W. Norton (1992), is a prophecy of computers and telecommunications displacing the broadcast-TV empire. He followed it with another classic, “Telecosm.” (Futurist/Consultant.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: Forbes ASAP
Title, headline, chapter name: The Bandwidth Tidal Wave
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~gaj1/bandgg.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney