Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

The “improved communications environments” … are too complex to function within the vast majority of computers now owned by schools and other low-end users. They therefore would be forced to buy expensive computers.

Predictor: Hughes, Dave

Prediction, in context:

In a 1993 article in Wired magazine reporter Jacques Leslie quotes Dave Hughes, labeled as “unquestionably the best-known online personality in the country.” At the time, Hughes figured he had been online for 14 years, linked to a computer bulletin board or network for at least four or five hours a day, reading 30 or 40 million electronic words in that time and posting at least a million of his own. Leslie writes: ”NAPLPS facilitates the transmission of foreign-language text, mathematical equations and scientific graphs, images, and even crude animation on the Internet … Hughes has been working to create a word-processing program that uses NAPLPS to enable deaf people to communicate in written sign language. Based partially on the enthusiasm that some bulletin board operators are at last showing for NAPLPS, Hughes is confident that the standard will gain widespread acceptance in 1993 … Hughes argues that the ‘improved communications environments’ [Apple Computer scientist Mike] Liebhold envisions are too complex to function within the vast majority of computers now owned by schools and other low-end users. They therefore would be forced to buy expensive computers, such as Apple’s Macintosh line. NAPLPS, on the other hand, works on virtually all computers in use today.”

Biography:

Dave Hughes created the first free, modem dial-up, electronic democracy bulletin-board system in the world. It soon challenged and altered the way local city-wide politics were conducted. It was colorfully named “Roger’s Bar.” Within five years the world’s press had beaten a path to Hughes’ home to report on, and encourage others to adopt an entirely new model of “electronic democracy” Ð a model that could be adopted in any small town in America. Wired magazine said he was the best-known personality on the Internet in 1993. Microtimes Magazine named Hughes one of the 100 most influential individuals in the Computer Age six times between 1990 and 1996. (Pioneer/Originator.)

Date of prediction: January 1, 1993

Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure

Subtopic: Internet Appliances

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: The Cursor Cowboy

Quote Type: Paraphrase

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/A/hughes_activist.bio

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Komorowski, Anne Gabrielle