The media expert foretold the demise of printed material by the year 2000 … “If I were a printer, I would try to get the rights to the bits.”
Predictor: Negroponte, Nicholas
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for American Printer magazine, M. Richard Vinocur quotes Nicholas Negroponte, a founder of MIT’s Media Lab. Vinocur writes:”At the National Association of Printers and Lithographers’ Top Management Conference earlier this year, the media expert foretold the demise of printed material by the year 2000. In fact, his position outlined at the NAPL meeting was so negative for print, I jokingly remarked that all sharp objects be removed following the session. Negroponte contends that with online services growing at 10 percent a month (his figures), 50 percent of the population will be online by the end of the century. He also suggests that the ‘digital homeless’ will be in the minority, and that the progress in that period will occur faster than developments in the printing era … ‘If I were a printer, I would try to get the rights to the bits,’ Negroponte advises, arguing that digital information inventories will replace printed material in five years. He says this will happen because 70 percent of all PCs sold today are for home use, and that 50 percent of all teenagers have computers … Before you close down your printing plant and look for another way to make a living, be aware of an important fact: Negroponte is on the ‘rubber chicken’ circuit to promote his book, and the way to sell books is through controversy … My goal is to stick around until at least the year 2000, so when Nicholas Negroponte again exclaims that print will be dead in five years, I can tell him I’ve heard that song before.”
Biography:Nicholas Negroponte, a co-founder of MIT’s Media Lab and a popular speaker and writer about technologies of the future, wrote one of the 1990s’ best-selling books about the new future of communications, “Being Digital.” (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: May 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Publishing
Name of publication: American Printer
Title, headline, chapter name: The Cyberspace Invasion
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web7.infotrac.galegroup.com/itw/infomark/47/536/32598094w7/purl=rc1_ITOF_0_A16962251&dyn=7!xrn_1_0_A16962251?sw_aep=ncliveec
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Garrison, Betty