If we were able to know in advance what the requirements were – and we really had them correct, and we were able to design something that was consistent with those requirements, and we had really gifted people who could implement the system in such a way that was consistent with its design, and we had gifted people who would operate the system, remembering what the original requirements were, so they wouldn’t compromise, and we had a user community that was fairly intelligent – then we might have a chance at having computer systems that we might be able to trust … There are an awful lot of things that can go wrong.
Predictor: Neumann, Peter G.
Prediction, in context:In a 1993 article for Wired magazine, Simson Garfinkel interviews Peter Neumann, best known for moderating RISKS-Forum, a popular electronic forum with content covering any use of computers that might accidentally lead to loss of life, property or money. Neumann also was editor of the journal Software Engineering Notes and wrote a monthly column for Communications of the Association for Computing Machinery, the journal of the ACM. Garfinkel asks, “Can we trust computers?” and quotes Neumann’s answer: ”Read my book (which should appear in 1994). It’s very mixed in its conclusions. It gives a great deal of evidence why you shouldn’t trust computers or the people who work with them, and yet it offers some hope. If we were able to know in advance what the requirements were – and we really had them correct, and we were able to design something that was consistent with those requirements, and we had really gifted people who could implement the system in such a way that was consistent with its design, and we had gifted people who would operate the system, remembering what the original requirements were, so they wouldn’t compromise, and we had a user community that was fairly intelligent – then we might have a chance at having computer systems that we might be able to trust … There are an awful lot of things that can go wrong.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1993
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Human-Machine Interaction
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: The Dean of Disaster: Plane Crashes, Nuclear Reactor Accidents, Explosions at Chemical Plants – If Computers Were At Fault, Peter Neumann Knows All About It
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/1.06/dean.disaster_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney