The Internet would have a worldwide user population of 34.9 million people by 1998.
Predictor: Forrester Research
Prediction, in context:In his 1999 article for Context magazine on the “Five Worst” Internet predictions, Evan Schwartz wrote about the mid-1990s predictions regarding the number of Internet users in the future. Writing from his 1999 perspective, Schwartz quotes the 1995 statements of consultants at Forrester Research: ”[Another poor guess about the future of the Internet:] The various predictions on the number of users of the Internet, which have consistently underestimated the speed with which the new medium would gather steam. Now, we acknowledge that predictions about violent change are treacherous. But estimates are supposed to be high. Everybody knows that technology forecasters get overly optimistic about the speed of change. Because, with the Internet, the estimates were so low, they allowed many companies to think they could afford to wait to form online strategies. In 1995, for instance, Forrester Research projected that ‘the Internet would have a worldwide user population of 34.9 million people by 1998.’ Notice the precision. Not 35 million, but 34.9 million. The real number ended up being in excess of 100 million users.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Number of Users
Name of publication: Context
Title, headline, chapter name: The Five Worst Predictions of the Internet Age
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.digitaldarwinism.com/5worst.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry