It is likely that most hypertexts in the medium-term future will remain as isolated islands of information without a high degree of connectedness to other documents. This has been called the docuislands scenario.
Predictor: Nielsen, Jakob
Prediction, in context:Technology development and design guru Jakob Nielsen shares his views in “The Future of Hypertext,” in 1995. He writes:”It is not even remotely likely that we will see Ted Nelson’s original Xanadu vision of having all the world’s literature online in a single unified system fulfilled in the medium-term future. Therefore hypertext documents will get into trouble as soon as they start linking to outside documents: Some readers will have them, and others will not. It is likely that most hypertexts in the medium-term future will remain as isolated islands of information without a high degree of connectedness to other documents. This has been called the docuislands scenario.”
Biography:Jakob Nielsen labeled himself as an “Internet User Advocate” and built a reputation as a speaker and writer in that area. He co-founded the Nielsen Norman Group with Donald A. Norman (a former VP of research at Apple Computer). In the early 1990s, he was an engineer at Sun Microsystems. He invented and patented a number of Internet usability methods. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: February 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Multimedia and Hypertext: The Internet and Beyond
Title, headline, chapter name: The Future of Hypertext
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.useit.com/papers/hypertextfuture.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry