Consider a day in the life of many General Electric Co. service technicians. When they finish their service visits at the end of the day, they sit down at home with their laptop computers and modems and order parts and equipment and get the next day’s assignments. While they sleep, their vans, still sitting in their driveways, are restocked, so work can start immediately the next morning … As America becomes a nation of distributed workers, jobs and employee-management relations are inevitably going to change … On the plus side, employees can have more independence and flexibility … The possible disadvantages of distributed work may be just as significant. Telecommuters often earn less than on-site workers and can have greater expenses … Some people may end up working more or harder at home or on the road than they would in an office. Isolation could be a serious problem.
Predictor: Kraut, Robert E.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 opinion piece he wrote for the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s editorial pages, Robert Kraut says: ”If you’re curious about the future of work in America, consider a day in the life of many General Electric Co. service technicians. When they finish their service visits at the end of the day, they sit down at home with their laptop computers and modems and order parts and equipment and get the next day’s assignments. While they sleep, their vans, still sitting in their driveways, are restocked, so work can start immediately the next morning … As America becomes a nation of distributed workers, jobs and employee-management relations are inevitably going to change … On the plus side, employees can have more independence and flexibility. They can live where they want, choose from a greater array of possible jobs, and reorganize their lives to balance work with personal matters. Parents can spend more time with their children, travel or shop during off-peak hours, or work when they feel most productive. Employers can also benefit. They will be able to recruit workers without requiring them to move to a central location. They can assemble and disassemble teams when needed. Fewer offices and meeting rooms will mean lower overhead. The possible disadvantages of distributed work may be just as significant. Telecommuters often earn less than on-site workers and can have greater expenses … If distributed work allows companies to use more temporary or contract workers, employers may lose job security or fringe benefits. Jobs also could become more automated or move out of the country. Some people may end up working more or harder at home or on the road than they would in an office. When a computer is tucked away in a bedroom, den, or home office it can be hard to leave a job behind at the end of the day … Isolation could be a serious problem, with negative effects on workers’ social lives and work effectiveness.”
Biography:Robert Kraut, a professor of social psychology and human-computer interaction at Carnegie Mellon University, set out in the 1990s to do research on the impact of the Internet on the average U.S. family. He is known for a longitudinal field trial called HomeNet in which carefully assessed how families’ use of the Internet changed over time. (Research Scientist/Illuminator.)
Date of prediction: February 13, 1995
Topic of prediction: Economic structures
Subtopic: Employment
Name of publication: Plain Dealer (Cleveland, Ohio)
Title, headline, chapter name: The Future of the Distributed Worker
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Section: Editorials & Forum; Page 9B
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Krout, Kevin M.