The prediction, in brief:

In three to five years, there will be millions of organizations, mostly small commercial organizations, doing their mainline business over the Internet as naturally as they use the fax today. In a couple years, it will be the default expectation that the little restaurant on the corner will have an [Internet directory listing]. As the technology evolves to the point that this can be used to place take-out orders or make reservations, such connectivity will become a prerequisite to survival. The same argument applies to most any business. Add security, credit-card charging and the L.L. Bean catalog, and voila – electronic commerce.

Predictor: Barker, Ben

Prediction, in context:

The 1995 book “The Information Revolution,” edited by Donald Altschiller, carries a reprint of a 1994 Computerworld article ÒThe History of the Future,Ó by senior editor Gary H. Anthes. Anthes interviewed more than a dozen pioneers of ARPAnet, forerunner to todayÕs Internet, including Ben Barker, the senior vice president and chief technology officer at Bolt, Beranek and Newman (BBN). In 1969, he designed the hardware interfaces for ARPAnet. Anthes quotes Barker saying:ÒIn three to five years, there will be millions of organizations, mostly small commercial organizations, doing their mainline business over the Internet as naturally as they use the fax today. In a couple years, it will be the default expectation that the little restaurant on the corner will have an [Internet directory listing]. As the technology evolves to the point that this can be used to place take-out orders or make reservations, such connectivity will become a prerequisite to survival. The same argument applies to most any business. Add security, credit-card charging and the L.L. Bean catalog, and voila – electronic commerce.Ó

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: E-commerce

Name of publication: The Information Revolution (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: The History of the Future

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 41

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne