The prediction, in brief:

I have grave doubts whether an overwhelming number of information professionals can find their most useful economic role as freelance infomercenaries who just get plugged in to do their bit of isolated work and then are dismissed. Information systems are the central element of how the modern enterprise governs itself, how it responds to external opportunities, and how it manages its resources. This requires a great deal of company-specific know-how, as well as a steady accumulation of knowledge.

Predictor: Strassmann, Paul

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for American Programmer, Paul Strassman speculates that information technology workers will not become “guns for hire” or, as he calls the proposed freelancers, “infomercenaries.” He writes:”The operative term for information systems is not optimization but balanced integration. What matters is not so much what each element does technically but how it fits with everything else … Therefore I have grave doubts whether an overwhelming number of information professionals can find their most useful economic role as freelance infomercenaries who just get plugged in to do their bit of isolated work and then are dismissed. Information systems are the central element of how the modern enterprise governs itself, how it responds to external opportunities, and how it manages its resources. This requires a great deal of company-specific know-how, as well as a steady accumulation of knowledge. Companies that think they can obtain economic value-added from information technologies exclusively in a bid/ask market, just like trading commodities, are likely to get just such commodity solutions. True, their labor costs will probably be lower, but they will totally miss the opportunity to capitalize on the accumulated knowledge of their people. It’s just like the difference between home ownership and renting. After 20 years, the renters have only receipts for their monthly payments and no valuable assets.”

Date of prediction: August 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: Employment

Name of publication: American Programmer

Title, headline, chapter name: The Internet: A Way of Outsourcing Infomercenaries?

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.strassmann.com/pubs/infomerc.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Vellucci, Amanda L.