The prediction, in brief:

The total numbers of Americans using the Internet may begin to surpass the number of those living below the poverty level – 39.3 million in 1993 – by the end of 1995. This indicator could define the emergence of a two-tiered society of information haves and have-nots, especially since home ownership of personal computers and individual use of networked information have been growing most rapidly within groups with higher incomes and education levels. Such a condition may have serious implications for low-income groups, who tend to lack access to advanced information technology, and to states that may be left behind due to economic differentials affecting information infrastructure.

Predictor: Civille, Richard

Prediction, in context:

The 1995 book “Public Access to the Internet,” edited by Brian Kahin and James Keller carries the chapter, “The Internet and the Poor” by Richard Civille. Civille is the executive director of the Center for Civic Networking, a non-profit organization dedicated to the application of information infrastructure to community and economic development. He writes:”By July 1994 there were an estimated 20 million individuals using the Internet in some manner in the United States, with Internet growth almost doubling yearly … If this trend continues, the total numbers of Americans using the Internet may begin to surpass the number of those living below the poverty level – 39.3 million in 1993 – by the end of 1995. This indicator could define the emergence of a two-tiered society of information haves and have-nots, especially since home ownership of personal computers and individual use of networked information have been growing most rapidly within groups with higher incomes and education levels. Such a condition may have serious implications for low-income groups, who tend to lack access to advanced information technology, and to states that may be left behind due to economic differentials affecting information infrastructure.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues

Subtopic: Digital Divide

Name of publication: Public Access to the Internet (book)

Title, headline, chapter name: The Internet and the Poor

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Page 175

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Guarino, Jennifer Anne