The prediction, in brief:

So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet – which there isn’t – the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.

Predictor: Stoll, Clifford

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Newsweek, Clifford Stoll, author of the book “Silicon Snake Oil,” a cautionary look at the impact of computers and the Internet, writes:”Then there’s cyberbusiness. We’re promised instant catalog shopping – just point and click for great deals. We’ll order airline tickets over the network, make restaurant reservations and negotiate sales contracts. Stores will become obsolete. So how come my local mall does more business in an afternoon than the entire Internet handles in a month? Even if there were a trustworthy way to send money over the Internet – which there isn’t – the network is missing a most essential ingredient of capitalism: salespeople.”

Biography:

Clifford Stoll was an astrophysicist who also wrote the influential books “Silicon Snake Oil” (1995) and “The Cuckoo’s Egg.” A long-time network user, Stoll made “Silicon Snake Oil” his platform for finding fault with the Internet hype of the early 1990s. He pointed out the pitfalls of a completely networked society and offered arguments in opposition to the hype. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: February 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Economic structures

Subtopic: Shopping

Name of publication: Newsweek

Title, headline, chapter name: The Internet? Bah! Why Cyberspace isn’t and Never Will Be Nirvana

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=52da77815d5cde87ee28054dc52fda65&_docnum=7&wchp=dGLbVlb-lSlAl&_md5=1d21907b93b3954deec2ef208ffe260c

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Tencer, Elizabeth L.