Many of the commercial interests scrambling to mine gold in cyberspace will crash and burn, victims of their own inexperience in this unique world … A burgeoning Internet will also force society to confront traditional notions of free speech and intellectual property in new, sometimes uncomfortable ways. What happens to the idea of “community standards” when almost anyone with a computer and modem can become a self-publisher with global distribution? A flood of new users may spark an epidemic of busy signals, worries about data security and a potential boom in computer crime. As the Net throws open its cloistered universe, the real world – goblins and all – will come rushing in.
Predictor: Sussman, Vic
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for U.S. News & World Report, Vic Sussman writes: ”Two recent developments will cause the Internet’s popularity to skyrocket in 1995 – bringing with it a host of thorny social and legal issues. The changes ahead stem primarily from two ground-breaking Internet innovations: the World Wide Web and software called Mosaic, a romantic reference to the gazillions of bits of information on the Net … Web-browsing software is doing for the Internet what the Macintosh and Windows did for personal computing – making it easier, lively and fun for ordinary users … The promise of new markets will see more cable television companies using their large-capacity lines to link consumers and businesses to the Internet. Similar market forces will encourage regional phone companies to plug customers into the high-speed data-transmission line known as ISDN, which uses ordinary phone wires. But the Net’s newfound popularity also will intensify a host of unresolved problems. Many of the commercial interests scrambling to mine gold in cyberspace will crash and burn, victims of their own inexperience in this unique world … A burgeoning Internet will also force society to confront traditional notions of free speech and intellectual property in new, sometimes uncomfortable ways. What happens to the idea of ‘community standards’ when almost anyone with a computer and modem can become a self-publisher with global distribution? A flood of new users may spark an epidemic of busy signals [on dial-up modems, which were the only access for most users at this time], worries about data security and a potential boom in computer crime. As the Net throws open its cloistered universe, the real world – goblins and all – will come rushing in.”
Date of prediction: December 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: U.S. News & World Report
Title, headline, chapter name: The Internet Will Gain Popularity, Problems
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
Vol. 117; Page 76
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Krout, Kevin M.