We could run out of IP addresses.
Predictor: Internet Architecture Board
Prediction, in context:In the minutes of the Internet Architecture Board meeting held June 28-29, 1990 at Bolt, Beranek & Newman in Cambridge, Mass., the members who recorded and edited the record of the proceedings write: ”We could run out of IP addresses. There are approximately 18,000 IP numbers assigned currently. Several questions were raised: 1. How fast are we consuming numbers? 2. How long will they last? 3. Is this a real problem, or will we run out of router capacity first? 4. Are the 16 bits for AS number enough, or much too little? ”Removing connected status will make this problem more severe. There will be a huge increase in rate of number assignment when economies of scale bring in major new markets – e.g., home Ethernets (‘toaster nets’). [David] Clark [of MIT] predicted that toaster nets will be a reality in 10 years; [Tony] Lauck [of DEC] uggested that ISDN will have an impact too. Might there be a creative hack around the limitations? It was accepted a hack might be technically possible, but a more coherent approach would be much preferable … Clark pointed out that the Internet will run out of routing resources long before it runs out of network numbers. Hierarchical routing is very important. We need more hierarchy in the IP space than subnets give us, and we may need more than even OSI can give us. There is much work to be done with autonomous domains.”
Date of prediction: June 1, 1990
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Protocols
Name of publication: Internet Architecture Board Minutes, June 28-29, 1990
Title, headline, chapter name: The IP Address Space Problem
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.iab.org/IABmins/IABmins.1990-06-28.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Culp, William Jarrell