Most people think that what you read in The New York Times is probably a pretty reasonable representation of world events. But over the Internet, there’s a real danger that people would only see what their provider wants them to see or what their religious/ethnic group wants them to see, and you could see a breakdown on the notion of consensus truth.
Predictor: Lanier, Jaron
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Electronic Engineering Times, Larry Lange talks with virtual-reality entrepreneur Jaron Lanier. Lange writes:”Lanier cited [an] increasingly fundamental problem for the Internet: the ‘truth problem.’ The Net, as a phenomenon, is still young, and reporting about it hasn’t been entirely accurate. ‘Right now, with centralized media – as we’ve seen with Time magazine’s Internet coverage – sometimes there’s a hemorrhage of journalistic ethics,’ The reference is to ‘Cyberporn,’ Time’s July 5 cover story, which most long-time users of the Internet castigate as hopelessly sensationalistic and biased. Furthermore, there are no filters for checking the veracity of information on the Net. ‘But there’s also some kind of expectation that there’s a standard that things are being held to,’ Lanier said. For example, ‘Most people think that what you read in The New York Times is probably a pretty reasonable representation of world events. But over the Internet, there’s a real danger that people would only see what their provider wants them to see or what their religious/ethnic group wants them to see, and you could see a breakdown on the notion of consensus truth.’ Such a scenario, he noted, ‘is not really upon us just yet, because of the bandwidth limitations, so we have a little bit of a grace period before we have to face it full-on. But it’s serious. It’s one of the major, significant problems coming up on us. As long as the ability to know the truth is in place, then I think it’s safe to see truth modified. But if that’s not in place, then that becomes a big problem because then you lose your grounding in anything real.’ This from a man who made his name in virtual reality.”
Biography:Jaron Lanier was a pioneer of virtual reality and founder and former CEO of VPL. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: September 25, 1995
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Electronic Engineering Times
Title, headline, chapter name: The ‘Nightmare Scenario’
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=e41899dd868358e2c12567ae35dc0370&_docnum=6&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlAl&_md5=db9f3530ced518f1dd258c02d16ef8af
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney