The rapid increases in computer speed and power that are expected by the year 2000 – widely estimated at a 104 percent increase in computing power and a 107 percent increase in transmission speed – will make a huge difference. Combine such databases with expert systems (which mimic the decision-making skills of experts) and you get expert systems that can learn.
Predictor: Flower, Joe
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 article for Wired magazine, Joe Flower explains the types of changes that could come in health care through the use of networked computing. Flower writes:”Even the most powerful Sun workstations may take up to two weeks to provide the answer. So the rapid increases in computer speed and power that are expected by the year 2000 – widely estimated at a 104 per-cent increase in computing power and a 107 percent increase in transmission speed – will make a huge difference. Combine such databases with expert systems (which mimic the decision-making skills of experts) and you get expert systems that can learn: ‘The standard dosage is 10 cc, but the experience in the database shows that, with an elevated plate-let count in a male over age 60 with lung complications, 5 cc would be better.'”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information
Subtopic: Medical/Professional
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: The Other Revolution in Health Care: Leave Hillary and Bill Out of It … The Health Care System is Going to Change Drastically Over the Next Decade
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.01/healthcare_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney