We’re in a phase where some of the theoretical underpinnings of our society are changing. We’re in the process of understanding how society will be impacted by the phenomena of widespread information and ubiquitous communication. How will business be changed by that? Can we create such a thing as an effective, scientific version of economics?
Predictor: Myhrvold, Nathan
Prediction, in context:For a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Stewart Brand, co-founder of The Well and Global Business Network, interviews Microsoft executive Nathan Myhrvold at the spring 1995 TED technology conference. Brand quotes Myhrvold saying: ”We’re in a phase where some of the theoretical underpinnings of our society are changing. We’re in the process of understanding how society will be impacted by the phenomena of widespread information and ubiquitous communication. How will business be changed by that? Can we create such a thing as an effective, scientific version of economics? I don’t mean to be rude to economists, but economics has not been something that can be reduced to engineering. Economists are at the stage of weather forecasters: they come up with a new explanation every year. Yet, some of the real basic stuff can be done by looking at the mathematics of emerging behavior and evolution.”
Biography:Nathan Myhrvold worked at Microsoft Corporation as chief technology officer in the 1990s. Myhrvold was responsible for the Advanced Technology and Research Group, which had a budget of over $2 billion per year. Earlier, he was group vice president of Applications and Content, which included a number of Microsoft divisions, including Desktop Applications, Consumer, Research and Microsoft On Line Systems. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: General, Overarching Remarks
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: The Physicist: As Director of Microsoft’s Advanced Technology Group, Nathan Myhrvold Oversees 650 Serfs and Spends $150 Million a Year to Keep Bill on Top
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.09/myhrvold_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney