Welcome to the infinitesimal world of micromachines – MEMS, as they are known – where physical laws are turned upside down and an entire mechanism can fit easily on the head of a pin … Not only are these “microlabs” smaller than anything that was imaginable a few years ago, but they can be fabricated 1,000 to the silicon wafer … Some of the fantasies include free-ranging microrobots cruising through the bloodstream, reporting on conditions, and making repairs on a cellular level as well as microfactories creating entire tool chests of micromachines.
Predictor: McWhorter, Paul
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Richard Rappaport travels to Sandia National Laboratories – a 27.8-square-mile plot on the southeast edge of Albuquerque – to report on the most recent developments there. Rappaport writes: ”Paul McWhorter, manager of integrated micromechanics, microsensors, and complimentary metal oxide semiconductor technologies, meets us at the entrance … Welcome to the infinitesimal world of micromachines – MEMS, as they are known – where physical laws are turned upside down and an entire mechanism can fit easily on the head of a pin … Not only are these ‘microlabs’ smaller than anything that was imaginable a few years ago, but they can be fabricated 1,000 to the silicon wafer. ‘They cost 10 times less, they’re 10 times faster, and they’re 10 times more sensitive,’ McWhorter says about these micromachine sensors, already being used in a number of real-world applications, including the Delta Clipper, one of NASA’s experimental spacecraft. ‘It’s an order-of-magnitude improvement.’ McWhorter believes that micromachines are today where microchips were two decades ago. “When the microcircuit first started, people didn’t dream of how much impact it would have,” he tells me. ‘Today, people are just beginning to dream of applications for micromachines.’ Some of the fantasies include free-ranging microrobots cruising through the bloodstream, reporting on conditions, and making repairs on a cellular level as well as microfactories creating entire tool chests of micromachines. But that is for some future micro-Henry Ford; McWhorter and his staff of a dozen are working on the nearer term: accelerometers for automobile air bags, commercial pressure sensors, microlocks for critical assemblies like nuclear weapons, and telecommunications applications such as micromotors that precisely position small mirrors and align fiber optics. The more detailed micromachines, however, must wait for the fulfillment of the Holy Micrograil: going the next several levels of complexity, and, as McWhorter puts it, ‘making the structures come out of the silicon wafers, so we’ll be able to create the harder tool sets.'”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: The Playground of Big Science: Sandia Labs Used to be the ‘Conscience’ of the Cold War. Now That it’s Over, the $4 Billion Question is Whether These Specialists in Everything from Astrophysics to Virtual Reality Can Create a New Mission – and Find a New Market – Before Congress Pulls the Plug
Quote Type: Paraphrase
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.10/sandia_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney