The prediction, in brief:

Perhaps, some like to venture, the new technologies will give rise to a new kind of literacy in which a literate person will be expected to be at least as familiar with great issues, melodies and rhythms as with great words … Some experts believe the next stage of the information revolution will be so cataclysmic that new forms of literacy will emerge.

Predictor: Markoff, John

Prediction, in context:

In a 1994 article for The New York Times, John Markoff writes about computers and literacy:”[In considering the loss of what is traditionally considered to be literacy – the text-based literacy], it is some consolation to recall that literacy itself – the old-fashioned, low-bandwidth kind – arose from new technologies. Perhaps, some like to venture, the new technologies will give rise to a new kind of literacy in which a literate person will be expected to be at least as familiar with great issues, melodies and rhythms as with great words … Some experts believe the next stage of the information revolution will be so cataclysmic that new forms of literacy will emerge. Several years ago, researchers at the Institute for Research on Learning, in California, found that when students from a poor neighborhood in East Palo Alto were given video editing tools, they could tell stories about their lives that they never would have been able to express in words. Some enthusiasts even speak, a little grandiosely, of a ‘posttextual literacy.'”

Biography:

John Markoff wrote or co-wrote “The High Cost of High Tech,” “Cyber Punk: Outlaws and Hackers on the Computer Frontier” and “Takedown: The Pursuit and Capture of America’s Most Wanted Computer Outlaw.” He also covered the computer industry and technology for the New York Times. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)

Date of prediction: March 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: E-learning

Name of publication: New York Times

Title, headline, chapter name: The Rise and Swift Fall of Cyber Literacy

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/Net_culture/Criticisms/fall_of_cyberliteracy.paper

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Stotler, Larry