ATM switches, which can move information at ferocious speeds, will take over the backbone activity on the Internet.
Predictor: Roberts, Lawrence G.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 article in NetGuide, a number of individuals were honored as “The Tomorrow Makers,” including Larry Roberts, the man who worked to get funding for the first network when he ran the Advanced Research Projects Agency. In the article, Grant Fjermedal writes: ”Ever a Tomorrow Maker, Roberts is now researching the potential of a communications technology called ATM (Asynchronous Transfer Mode). ATM switches, which can move information at ferocious speeds, ‘will take over the backbone activity on the Internet,’ Roberts predicts.”
Biography:Lawrence G. (Larry) Roberts, met and was inspired by J.C.R. Licklider in 1964 to work on building a wide-area communications network. In 1965, the director of the IPTO contracted Roberts to develop a network. Thomas Marill programmed the network. In1966, Roberts and Marill published what amounted to an ARPANET plan Ð it was titled “Toward a Cooperative Network of Shared Computers.” Roberts joined ARPA in 1966 as IPTO chief scientist. He led 1967 design discussions at an ARPA meeting in Michigan at which the standards for transmission of characters, and identification and authentication of users were first described. In 1967, he presented a paper that summarized the complete ARPANET plan at an ACM symposium in Tennessee. In 1968, he wrote and completed a program plan titled “Resource Sharing Computer Networks” which was approved June 21, and work on ARPANET began. In 1969, he became director of IPTO. He wrote the first e-mail management program to list, selectively read, file, forward and respond to messages in 1972. In 1973, he became CEO of Telenet, the first packet-switching network carrier. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: NetGuide
Title, headline, chapter name: The Tomorrow Makers
Quote Type: Partial quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://weblinks1.epnet.com/citation.asp?tb=1&_ug=dbs+0+ln+en%2Dus+sid+140392B7%2DB8CB%2D4B70%2DB4CD%2D9F1B2D834324%40Sessionmgr2+F597&_uh=btn+N+idb+f5hish+jdb+f5hjnh+op+phrase+ss+ID++NTG+B8B9&_us=bs+JN++%22NetGuide%22++and++DT++19950101+ds+JN++%22NetGuide%22++and++DT++19950101+dstb+KS+fcl+Aut+ri+KAAACBZD00002054+sm+KS+EE87&cf=1&fn=11&rn=18
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney