We estimate that graphics performance is increasing about 1000 times every 10 years: that is, it’s on that two-times-per-year curve that I wanted all along. And to win, we are looking for a graphics architecture that will scale more like a factor of 10,000 times over the next 10 years.
Predictor: Joy, Bill
Prediction, in context:In a November, 1995, speech at Sun Microsystems UltraComputing Event, Bill Joy, co-founder and vice president of Sun, says: ”VIS and 3-D with Ultra make Sun’s future bright. The 3-D graphics hardware performance is on a faster improvement curve than the CPU’s. We estimate that graphics performance is increasing about 1000 times every 10 years: that is, it’s on that two-times-per-year curve that I wanted all along. And to win, we are looking for a graphics architecture that will scale more like a factor of 10,000 times over the next 10 years. Perhaps we won’t quite get there, just like the two-times-per-year goal was very ambitious. But you only hit what you aim at.”
Biography:Bill Joy served as chief of technical strategy at Sun Microsystems, a position he held in the 1990s, from the founding of days of the company in 1982. (Technology Developer/Administrator.)
Date of prediction: November 7, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Pipeline/Switching/Hardware
Name of publication: The UltraComputing Event
Title, headline, chapter name: The Ultra Generation: To The Next Millennium
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.sun.com/951107/feature1/
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney