The prediction, in brief:

High-tech innovations in computer-adaptive testing, or CAT, are forcing educators to reconsider the way standardized tests are administered and evaluated … Both your job and the education your children receive are largely determined by performance on standardized tests, so you can’t escape the spectre of this kind of testing. Nor can you escape the spectre of CAT.

Predictor: Cooper, Carol

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Carol Cooper, a writer for The Village Voice, and Perry Halkitis, director of statistics and computer services for the Professional Examination Service, cover the implications of computer-adaptive testing (CAT) and its potential for the future. They write:”High-tech innovations in computer-adaptive testing, or CAT, are forcing educators to reconsider the way standardized tests are administered and evaluated … CAT programs make snap judgments about how smart you are according to how you answer each question the programs decide to give you. Imagine this: you’re sitting down to take one of any number of standardized tests, be it a well-known exam such as the SAT or the GRE, or a more specialized test you might take as a firefighter trying to prove your mettle. CAT software presents an item of average or typical difficulty. Based on your response, the next item is either easier or harder. An incorrect response tells the program that the last item was too hard for you and that perhaps the your true ability level is lower; a correct response means that your ability requires something more challenging … Both your job and the education your children receive are largely determined by performance on standardized tests, so you can’t escape the spectre of this kind of testing. Nor can you escape the spectre of CAT.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: E-learning

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: This Test is for You: Standardized Testing is a Communal Rite of Passage. Computer-Adaptive Testing is About to Make Those Rites Very Individual

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.01/adaptive_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney