The prediction, in brief:

Besides the obvious convenience and the fact that electronic delivery, storage, and instant scoring of computerized tests should eventually render them cheaper to administrate, computer-adapted tests have other subtler advantages. For instance, computing capabilities make it possible, in the jargon of teachers and testers, to “self-adapt” exams … Such flexibility allows CAT to get closer to measuring skills and intelligence, rather than some abstraction of them.

Predictor: Cooper, Carol

Prediction, in context:

In a 1995 article for Wired magazine, Carol Cooper, a writer for The Village Voice, and Perry Halkitis, director of statistics and computer services for the Professional Examination Service, cover the implications of computer-adaptive testing (CAT) and its potential for the future. They write:”Besides the obvious convenience and the fact that electronic delivery, storage, and instant scoring of computerized tests should eventually render them cheaper to administrate, computer-adapted tests have other subtler advantages. For instance, computing capabilities make it possible, in the jargon of teachers and testers, to ‘self-adapt’ exams. In the winter of 1992, the Journal of Educational Measurement published a study comparing results from self-adaptive and computer-adaptive tests. Using MicroCAT, testers had developed an item bank of math problems comprising six levels of difficulty. In the self-adaptive version of the quiz, students were given the chance to select their own level of difficulty on each question, rather than being randomly judged based on the previous answer. This option resulted in higher overall scores for the students taking the self-adaptive version. Proponents argue that such flexibility allows CAT to get closer to measuring skills and intelligence, rather than some abstraction of them.”

Date of prediction: January 1, 1994

Topic of prediction: Getting, Sharing Information

Subtopic: E-learning

Name of publication: Wired

Title, headline, chapter name: This Test is for You: Standardized Testing is a Communal Rite of Passage. Computer-Adaptive Testing is About to Make Those Rites Very Individual

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/3.01/adaptive_pr.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney