With only about half of U.S. households containing personal computers by the year 2000, a robust set of alternative devices and locations is needed, including keyboard attachments to TV set-top boxes and video game machines, and extended telephones providing e-mail (and likely integrated voice mail) access. Public access is vital, with libraries, post offices, kiosks, and government buildings each playing a role. There might well be a market for “pay” terminals analogous to the ubiquitous pay telephones.
Predictor: Anderson, Robert H.
Prediction, in context:In a 1995 research paper published for the RAND Publications Database, Robert H. Anderson, Tora K. Bikson, Sally Ann Law, Bridger M. Mitchell, Christopher Kedzie, Brent Keltner, Constantijn Panis, Joel Pliskin, Padmanabhan Srinagesh write about the feasibility of universal access to e-mail:”We find that access to and the location of physical devices for e-mail use significantly impede universal access. With only about half of U.S. households containing personal computers by the year 2000, a robust set of alternative devices and locations is needed, including keyboard attachments to TV set-top boxes and video game machines, and extended telephones providing e-mail (and likely integrated voice mail) access. Public access is vital, with libraries, post offices, kiosks, and government buildings each playing a role. There might well be a market for ‘pay’ terminals analogous to the ubiquitous pay telephones.”
Date of prediction: January 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Communication
Subtopic: General
Name of publication: Rand Publications Database
Title, headline, chapter name: Universal Access to E-mail: Feasibility and Societal Implications
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR650/sum.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney