By pushing companies to offer network services at something like the cost of providing them – instead of a fictional price connived for social convenience – regulators can put networks on a sound economic footing, and so make them independent of the whims of politics and subsidy. By requiring entrenched giants to provide basic technology to others as they provide it unto themselves, regulators can set free the vast investments already made in telecom infrastructure for expansion and innovation, and so fulfill the public trust that built them. By allowing innovation to rise or fall on its own merits – rather than because of lobbyists’ pressure – regulators can enable Americans to choose for themselves.
Predictor: Browning, John
Prediction, in context:In a 1994 essay for Wired magazine, John Browning, a contributor to The Economist from London, addresses the issue of universal communications service. He writes: ”Politicians throughout Washington – and particularly Al Gore – will have to indulge in an uncomfortable honesty. To imply, as Gore now does when he ‘challenges’ network providers to wire every school, hospital, and library in America by 2000, that it is possible to provide ubiquitous, high-bandwidth networks without either new taxes or high prices for some new services. Universal service cross-subsidies are a tax – albeit a tax buried in the price of services and beneath layers of obscure cost allocation and pricing regulations. They are a particularly inefficient and wasteful tax. And, worst of all, they are a deceptive and distorting tax, a tax that makes it hard to see the real costs of the building blocks of tomorrow’s networks and thus the real opportunities in building the networks that will change the world. That is no foundation on which to build the future. If networks are indeed the future of America, at least the nation should begin building them as it would speak over them – with honesty at all times, even when the honest message is not the one people want to hear. More important, honesty underlies the sort of regulatory system in which networks can realize their potential. By pushing companies to offer network services at something like the cost of providing them – instead of a fictional price connived for social convenience – regulators can put networks on a sound economic footing, and so make them independent of the whims of politics and subsidy. By requiring entrenched giants to provide basic technology to others as they provide it unto themselves, regulators can set free the vast investments already made in telecom infrastructure for expansion and innovation, and so fulfill the public trust that built them. By allowing innovation to rise or fall on its own merits – rather than because of lobbyists’ pressure – regulators can enable Americans to choose for themselves the way they would like to communicate, to learn, and to use the vast potential of the new technology they are creating. Building upon the sound foundations of real competition and honest pricing, people can begin to build for themselves the sorts of networks they want – rather than waiting to be served.”
Biography:John Browning served as executive editor of Wired UK, the English-language European edition of Wired, the magazine established to chronicle the digital revolution. Prior to Wired, Browning spent 12 years at The Economist, writing about business, technology and economics. (Author/Editor/Journalist.)
Date of prediction: January 1, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Cost/Pricing
Name of publication: Wired
Title, headline, chapter name: Universal Service (An Idea Whose Time is Past): Universal Service is a 1930s Solution to a 21st Century Problem. The Problem is an Excess (Not Shortage) of Bandwidth
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.09/universal.access_pr.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney