In five years, it won’t be just 200 million computers [on the Internet] but something like several billion, and the current addressing technique is inadequate for that.
Predictor: Deering, Stephen E.
Prediction, in context:In the September 1995 issue of IEEE Spectrum, Internet gurus have a conversation about the shortage of Internet Protocol (IP) addresses; a segment follows: ”Haruhisa Ishida: The Chinese would eventually like to have 1 billion IP addresses. ”Christian Huitema: In five years, it won’t be just 200 million computers [on the Internet] but something like several billion, and the current addressing technique is inadequate for that. ”Stephen E. Deering: It seems quite reasonable to imagine whole new classes of devices getting on the Internet power meters: automobiles, set-top boxes, your stereo, your refrigerator, burglar alarm and so on. ”Huitema: And pacemakers. ”Vinton G. Cerf: And your toaster, which is already integrated. ”Eric Schmidt: So when do we run out, Steve? ”Deering: I currently say 2010, plus or minus 10 years. A little flattening of the exponential growth curve through better address management gave us a lot more years, but the introduction of new classes of devices can change that quickly.”
Date of prediction: September 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Number of Users
Name of publication: Computerworld
Title, headline, chapter name: Viewpoint: Verbatim
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=465cd6d9f3abb6c40b939c25276a60ac&_docnum=2&wchp=dGLbVlz-lSlzV&_md5=b581015680c298cd99fc3cfdf1210470
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Lightburn, Ellie