If a significant part of a population begins to form social relationships on computer networks, then the rest of the population, even if it is the majority, will be less able to participate fully in all aspects of the society, much less to monitor, even benignly, the activities of computer users … As communities develop on the Net, it will become increasingly important to observe how power and authority are distributed and what effect that distribution has on discourse within the public sphere.
Predictor: Fernback, Jan
Prediction, in context:A paper titled “Computer-Mediated Communication and the American Collectivity: The Dimensions of Community Within Cyberspace,” by Jan Fernback and Brad Thompson, was presented at the annual convention of the International Communication Association, Albuquerque, N.M., May 1995. It was reprinted in full form on Howard Rheingold’s Web site. This is an excerpt: ”[Online] communities can be purely instrumental in nature – that is, they may never extend beyond talking to one another; or, they may promote action – that is, virtual communities may manifest themselves in real political action, such as educational reform or political caucuses É Until the vagaries of communication within this new technological development are more firmly understood, the conceptualization of online community may remain somewhat vague É What role can computer-mediated communication (and online community in particular) play in redefining a sense of wholeness within American public life? Do communities within cyberspace have the capability of serving as a series of new public spheres in contemporary Western nations? É The form a technology takes can influence power relationships; that is, how authority is distributed among those affected by the technology É If a significant part of a population begins to form social relationships on computer networks, then the rest of the population, even if it is the majority, will be less able to participate fully in all aspects of the society, much less to monitor, even benignly, the activities of computer users. Thus, contextualizing the use of CMC [computer-mediated communication] is an important aspect of studying it. As communities develop on the Net, it will become increasingly important to observe how power and authority are distributed and what effect that distribution has on discourse within the public sphere.”
Date of prediction: May 1, 1995
Topic of prediction: Community/Culture
Subtopic: Virtual Communities
Name of publication: Rheingold.com
Title, headline, chapter name: Virtual Communities: Abort, Retry, Failure?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.rheingold.com/texts/techpolitix/VCcivil.html
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney