Elon University
The prediction, in brief:

CMC does not, at this point, hold the promise of enhancing democracy because it promotes communities of interest that are just as narrowly defined as current public factions defined by identity (whether it be racial, sexual, or religious). Public discourse ends when identities become the last, unyielding basis for argumentation that strives ideally to achieve consensus based on a common good.

Predictor: Fernback, Jan

Prediction, in context:

A paper titled “Computer-Mediated Communication and the American Collectivity: The Dimensions of Community Within Cyberspace,” by Jan Fernback and Brad Thompson, was presented at the annual convention of the International Communication Association, Albuquerque, N.M., May 1995. It was reprinted in full form on Howard Rheingold’s Web site. This is an excerpt: ”CMC [Computer-Mediated Communication] does not, at this point, hold the promise of enhancing democracy because it promotes communities of interest that are just as narrowly defined as current public factions defined by identity (whether it be racial, sexual, or religious). Public discourse ends when identities become the last, unyielding basis for argumentation that strives ideally to achieve consensus based on a common good.”

Date of prediction: May 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Community/Culture

Subtopic: Virtual Communities

Name of publication: Rheingold.com

Title, headline, chapter name: Virtual Communities: Abort, Retry, Failure?

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.rheingold.com/texts/techpolitix/VCcivil.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney