The prediction, in brief:

The likely result of the development of virtual communities through CMC will be that a hegemonic culture will maintain its dominance. Certainly, it cannot be assumed that the current political and technical elites would willingly cede their position of dominance or knowingly sow the seeds of their own destruction. Indeed, it seems most likely that the virtual public sphere brought about by CMC will serve a cathartic role, allowing the public to feel involved rather than to advance actual participation. Communities seem more likely to be formed or reinforced when action is needed, as when a country goes to war, rather than through discourse alone.

Predictor: Fernback, Jan

Prediction, in context:

A paper titled “Computer-Mediated Communication and the American Collectivity: The Dimensions of Community Within Cyberspace,” by Jan Fernback and Brad Thompson, was presented at the annual convention of the International Communication Association, Albuquerque, N.M., May 1995. It was reprinted in full form on Howard Rheingold’s Web site. This is an excerpt:”The likely result of the development of virtual communities through CMC [Computer-Mediated Communication] will be that a hegemonic culture will maintain its dominance. Certainly, it cannot be assumed that the current political and technical elites would willingly cede their position of dominance or knowingly sow the seeds of their own destruction. Indeed, it seems most likely that the virtual public sphere brought about by CMC will serve a cathartic role, allowing the public to feel involved rather than to advance actual participation. Communities seem more likely to be formed or reinforced when action is needed, as when a country goes to war, rather than through discourse alone.”

Date of prediction: May 1, 1995

Topic of prediction: Community/Culture

Subtopic: Virtual Communities

Name of publication: Rheingold.com

Title, headline, chapter name: Virtual Communities: Abort, Retry, Failure?

Quote Type: Direct quote

Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.rheingold.com/texts/techpolitix/VCcivil.html

This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Anderson, Janna Quitney