Do we need all the regulation where each slice of frequency in each geographical area is tightly controlled by Washington? Or might we be better off if we used the Internet as our model? No central node. Local decision control with a minimum of restrictions.
Predictor: Baran, Paul
Prediction, in context:Paul Baran made the following statement in a 1994 speech on 21st century communications: ”Now, do we need all the regulation where each slice of frequency in each geographical area is tightly controlled by Washington? Or might we be better off if we used the Internet as our model? No central node. Local decision control with a minimum of restrictions. The Internet is growing rapidly. It is inexpensive and it allows the broadest access to the world’s information to a greater number of people than ever initially imagined. Yet, it is theoretically chaotic, as would be sharing a common band of frequencies by all comers. We know that both examples of distributed networks can be made to work.”
Biography:Paul Baran joined RAND in 1959 and investigated development of survivable communication networks capable of allowing the U.S. to reorganise and respond after a nuclear attack. By 1964, he developed the field of packet-switching networks, as outlined in 11 comprehensive papers titled “On Distributed Communications Networks.” This work eventually convinced U.S. officials that development of wide-area digital computer networks should be a priority. Others also say they were working on packet switching in this era, but Baran and Donald Davies were generally given the credit at this point in the 1990s. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: November 9, 1994
Topic of prediction: Controversial Issues
Subtopic: Jurisdiction/Control
Name of publication: Keynote Talk Transcript, 8th Annual Conference on Next Generation Networks Washington, D.C.
Title, headline, chapter name: Visions of the 21st Century Communications: Is the Shortage of Radio Spectrum for Broadband Networks of the Future a Self-Made Problem?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/GII_NII/Wireless_cellular_radio/false_scarcity_baran_cngn94.transcript
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Beckett, Angela