And, in the future when we deal with increasing numbers of users, wireless could in turn become the preferred medium … Conceptually this removes the constraints of being like the dog whose freedom of action is limited by the length of his leash.
Predictor: Baran, Paul
Prediction, in context:Paul Baran made the following statement in a 1994 speech on 21st century communications: ”And, in the future when we deal with increasing numbers of users, wireless could in turn become the preferred medium … Conceptually this removes the constraints of being like the dog whose freedom of action is limited by the length of his leash.”
Biography:Paul Baran joined RAND in 1959 and investigated development of survivable communication networks capable of allowing the U.S. to reorganise and respond after a nuclear attack. By 1964, he developed the field of packet-switching networks, as outlined in 11 comprehensive papers titled “On Distributed Communications Networks.” This work eventually convinced U.S. officials that development of wide-area digital computer networks should be a priority. Others also say they were working on packet switching in this era, but Baran and Donald Davies were generally given the credit at this point in the 1990s. (Pioneer/Originator.)
Date of prediction: November 9, 1994
Topic of prediction: Information Infrastructure
Subtopic: Wireless Technologies
Name of publication: Keynote Talk Transcript, 8th Annual Conference on Next Generation Networks Washington, D.C.
Title, headline, chapter name: Visions of the 21st Century Communications: Is the Shortage of Radio Spectrum for Broadband Networks of the Future a Self-Made Problem?
Quote Type: Direct quote
Page number or URL of document at time of study:
http://www.eff.org/GII_NII/Wireless_cellular_radio/false_scarcity_baran_cngn94.transcript
This data was logged into the Elon/Pew Predictions Database by: Beckett, Angela